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Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T22:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 610
Longitude (deg): E004
Latitude (deg): S13
Half-angular width (deg): 42 

Notes: Adjusted slightly earlier than enlil, due to stronger CH40 HSS influence expected compared to model winds. Low confidence as bulk material to south, despite NW location of eruption.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 53.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-08-31T16:40Z

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